- The United Kingdom could be headed for another hung parliament.
- YouGov’s highly-anticipated MRP poll published on Wednesday says the Conservatives’ lead over Labour has more than halved in two weeks.
- It gives Boris Johnson’s party a majority of 28 seats, down from 68.
- However, the findings are within the margin of error.
- This means that Britain could end up with a bigger Conservative majority or another hung parliament when voters go to the polls on Thursday for the general election.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Boris Johnson’s lead over the Labour party has halved and is now within the margin of error of another hung parliament, according to massive new polling model which correctly predicted the outcome of the last general election.
YouGov’s highly-anticipated MRP projection, published on Tuesday night, puts Boris Johnson’s Conservatives on 339 House of Commons seats, 20 fewer than the leading pollster gave the party at the end of November.
Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is on 231 seats, 20 more than it had in YouGov’s MRP projection last month. The Liberal Democrats are on 15 and the Scottish National Party are set to win 41 of the 59 seats on offer in Scotland.
The findings, based on responses from 105,621 voters across the United Kingdom, suggest Johnson is course to win a parliamentary majority when Brits go to the polls on Thursday.
However, they also find that his lead over Labour has shrunk significantly over the last fortnight.
YouGov’s MRP projection, which correctly indicated a hung parliament at the 2017 general election, gave the Conservatives a 68-seat majority at the end of last month. Its updated projection gives the party a majority of 28.
YouGov on Wednesday said that its findings were within the margin of error, meaning it could not rule out a hung parliament or indeed a large Conservative majority.
Here is the result of YouGov’s final MRP poll:
- Conservatives — 339 seats (43%)
- Labour — 231 seats (34%)
- Scottish National Party — 41 seats (3%)
- Liberal Democrats — 15 seats (12%)
- Greens — 1 seat (3%)
- Brexit Party — 0 seats (3%)
Labour shores up its ‘red wall’
YouGov’s poll suggests Labour is regaining support in its traditional seats which are being heavily targeted by the Conservatives.
Johnson’s party has set its sights on Brexit-voting seats across the north of England the Midlands amid swathes of research showing that voters there are drifting away from the Labour Party.
One of these is Workington, in the northwest county of Cumbria. YouGov gives Labour a two percentage point lead over Conservatives here after putting the Tories one percentage point ahead at the end of last month.
Labour is also clinging onto West Bromwich East, formerly held by the party’s ex-deputy leader, Tom Watson, according to YouGov.
Real Life. Real News. Real Voices
Help us tell more of the stories that matterBecome a founding member
However, a number of Labour-held seats in those areas are still projected to go to the Conservatives. That list includes long-standing Labour seats like Don Valley in Yorkshire and Barrow & Furness in Cumbria.
Party leader Corbyn is set to address rallies in the northeast of England and London on Wednesday ahead of polls opening for the general election on Thursday morning.
Subscribe to the newsletter news
We hate SPAM and promise to keep your email address safe