- Senior Conservatives including Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab could lose their seats in the election, according to a new polling model.
- The seats of Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers are both under threat, according to YouGov polling.
- Prominent Brexiteers including Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood are also under threat.
- YouGov’s MRP predicted Boris Johnson would win a majority of 28.
- But the prime minister’s lead over Labour has more than halved in the final weeks of the campaign.
Boris Johnson could lose two of his most senior Brexit-supporting ministers in Thursday’s election, according to the polling model that correctly forecast the outcome of the last vote in 2017.
The seats of Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers are both under threat, according to YouGov polling released on Monday evening.
Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith and former minister John Redwood, both vocal Leave supporters, also face a knife-edge vote to keep their place in the Commons, YouGov’s MRP survey found.
All four MPs represent constituencies in the south of England where a majority of voters backed Remain in the 2016 referendum.
Their difficulties are set to be compounded by tactical voting among Remainers which has seen support coalesce around Labour or Liberal Democrat candidates.
Theresa Villiers, who played a central role in the Vote Leave campaign, is the most at threat of the four MPs. She is just two points behind Labour candidate Emma Whysall in the London seat of Chipping Barnet.
Raab, in Esher and Walton, and Duncan Smith, in Chingford and Wood Green, are two points and three points ahead respectively.
They have both watched their lead in the polls fall dramatically since the start of the campaign.
Redwood, meanwhile, is under threat in Wokingham from Philip Lee, a former Conservative MP who quit over Brexit and is running as a Lib Dem candidate.
A YouGov spokesman said: “Chingford and Wood Green has been a safe Tory seat since it was created in 1997.
“But with demographic changes and other local factors the comfortable advantage they had has changed.”
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The MRP poll, which asked over 100,000 people about their voting intentions, is widely respected and accurately predicted the 2017 election would result in a hung parliament.
It predicted that, if the election were held today, Boris Johnson would win a majority of 28. But the prime minister’s lead over Labour has more than halved in the final weeks of the campaign.
YouGov’s final MRP model predicted that the Conservatives would win 339 seats. It put Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15.
But the pollsters said the margin of error could put the Conservative seat count as low as 311, which would result in another hung parliament.
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