- Boris Johnson is on course for a big majority in the general election, according to the polling model that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 election.
- The Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43, and the Lib Dems 13, YouGov’s MRP model suggested.
- The result would give Johnson a majority of 68 as he made big gains at Labour’s expense, particularly in the Midlands and north of England.
- However, only a relatively modest swing in the other direction would trigger another hung parliament.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Boris Johnson’s Conservatives are set for a crushing general election win over Labour on December 12, according to the polling model which accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 vote.
The YouGov data, which tracks the responses of tens of thousands of people, said the Tories could win a 68-seat majority in parliament if the election were held tomorrow.
Labour is on track for 211 seats, it predicted, losing 44 constituencies to the Conservatives, including the seat of Tom Watson, the outgoing deputy leader.
It would represent the party’s second-worst defeat since 1945, with Jeremy Corbyn’s party picking up just two more than Michael Foot’s disastrous result in 1983.
YouGov’s Election Forecast: How many MPs could each party have?
Liberal Democrats: 13
Most of the losses are predicted to come in Leave-voting areas in the north of England and Midlands, in constituencies where a majority of voters backed Leave in the EU referendum and appear to have become disillusioned by Labour’s perceived lack of clarity on Brexit.
YouGov’s MRP poll has been the most widely anticipated of this election campaign because it correctly forecast that the general election in 2017 would result in a hung parliament. Many other polling companies predicted a comfortable Tory majority.
The pollsters asked approximately 100,000 people in the UK about their voting intentions. They used the data, which was collected last week, and ran it through a computer model which factored in demographics, constituency information, past behaviour and other metrics to calculate the probability a given person will vote for a particular party.
The survey found that Johnson was set to pick up 42 more seats than Theresa May’s doomed 2017 campaign, which would represent their best performance since 1987, YouGov said.
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, said: “As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour is how that seat voted in the European Union referendum.
“In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 [60 per cent or more], the swing to the Conservatives is over 6 per cent.
“This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.
“The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5 per cent or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called red wall. But with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.”
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Jonathan Ashworth, Labour’s shadow health secretary, said after the poll was published that if it was correct it would represent a “thumping great victory” for the prime minister.
The SNP are on course to pick up 43 seats, an improvement of eight from 2017.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are set to increase their seat count by just one, from 12 to 13. Jo Swinson, the party’s leader, said at the start of the election campaign that she could become the next prime minister.
But she admitted on Monday that Boris Johnson was on course to win a majority and dropped her insistence that she could enter Downing Street in December.
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